I heard the same thing when Nobama was in office, that prices wouldn't come back down... but they did. Primers may not drop back down to $29 per K, but maybe we'll see $35 or $40 per K. Same for all other components... maybe we'll see powder at $25-$30 per lb... hard to say but availability and demand sets the price. Once the government stops buying up boat loads of ammo, the availability side will improve.
Not trying to correct you, or prove you wrong here. But pre 2008, primers were .02, match primers, CCI-Federal were .03 when buying bulk. Once things settled down, reg primers were now .035, and match were .04 at best.
Non premium powders, IMR, Hodgdon, Winchester, Accurate, Alliant were selling under 20 per lb in 8lb kegs. Singles have always been a crap shoot and prices retail dependent.
Prices do drop, but never to the previous levels. Powder Valley has listed common powders at 240 per keg(30LB), that will be bare minimum going forward. Singles of course will depend on just who is selling them, but by nature add a 20% minimum surcharge just for packaging and handling.
If we see .06 for reg primers, I will consider it a miracle, and I see 65 per brick minimum.
No doubt our costs are going to go up X% amount, a given, but a 50% increase in primer cost is .04 more per rd, A 30% increase in powder costs will be another .03 and up.
The real increase in the costs of reloading will come from bullets and brass, mostly bullets.
Especially premium bullets. Berger has not been caught up in yrs, and the move to AZ surely didn't alleviate much. Shooters themselves will guarantee that w/o a serious production increase, that they never do catch up. Seemingly shortages of raw materials for brass and bullets will dictate prices.
Example, but not really a fair one. I have shot Berger 7mm 180 hybrids since they came out in around 2011. Buying by 500 boxes, and having stockpiled them, I bypased normal increases in price. I have never paid more than 200 for a box of 500, today the minimum will be 325 per 500, of course out of stock. That is roughly a .25 per rd hike.
Lapua brass is at minimum 20% higher than 5 yrs ago. Of course most amortize our brass, but it is still a .20 minimum initial expense
My examples were premium components, so not all things equal. But things are really not going to get all that much better for us.