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Old 11-24-2017, 01:07 PM
Black Knight
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Remington in trouble



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There are reports that because of reduced sales Remington will soon go into default.

"Remington Outdoor, the second-largest U.S. gunmaker has suffered a “rapid” and “sharp” deterioration in sales and a similar drop in profits since January, and faces “continued softness in consumer demand for firearms,” credit analysts at Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings said in a report Friday". This report is from the Philadelphia Inquirer.

"S&P as a result has cut the company’s corporate credit rating — already at a junk-bond-level CCC+ — two full notches, to CCC-, a move likely to make the company’s high-yield debt less attractive to investors and lenders, and force Remington to pay more in interest. The company could face a change in control, bankruptcy, or default on its debt by next year".

Sad to see what is happening to a once great company.
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Old 11-24-2017, 01:57 PM
jon p
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Unhappy that is sad

todays Remington is not the early company for sure. not my fathers Remington either. another fine company ridden into the dirt. I have been surprised at all the current rebates they are offering. 100. off on the 9mm r51. hope it is better than the FIRST offering.
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Old 11-24-2017, 02:02 PM
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From some of the junk that gets out from another very large old company, I expect they will be next.
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Old 11-24-2017, 03:19 PM
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Big Green just.....

....needs to bring back the Nylon 66. Easy peasy.


Ferox34
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Old 11-24-2017, 03:38 PM
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Go buy a Dakota while you have the chance
Actually, soft firearms sales is a recent thing. What about all those obscene profits on firearms and ammunition during the Big O administration? Maybe that pesky safety issue did fatal damage?
TBR
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Old 11-24-2017, 03:47 PM
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I just read that about an hour ago. Sad to see it. I`ve always been a Remington guy.
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Old 11-24-2017, 04:33 PM
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Gee,,,
Almost zero innovation in, well. Forever.
Other than 700 and 870s,do they make anything anyone wants?

40yrs ago, if you wanted a bolt gun you basically had a 700,and Winchester 70 to pick from. Today? Sheesh.

Sat on their hands for the last 3 decades, and let other MFGs blow by them.


Freedom Group comes in, fires good people, puts the brakes on anything new, then has the Gaul to blame the customer.
Nice.
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Old 11-24-2017, 05:21 PM
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U.S. Civilian gun manufacturers

Not saying that the Remington information is not somewhat disheartening but I don't know of any U.S. mass producers Civilian gun manufacturers that have not suffered enormously since the new administration came into being and in fact since folks knew it was going to happen.

Ruger took an enormous hit in the 3rd quarter....$104M TY to $160M for 3rd Quarter same period in 2016. That's about a 35% drop if I did not screw up the math.

I have more then a passing familiarity with Remington and Cerberus which was heavily involved with the Freedom Group, now known as Remington Outdoor Group.

I did some consulting for Cerberus and know the two consultants who have been working with Remington for the last 3 years to transition it. I also know a number of venture capitalists that had done "Stalking Horse" due diligence when the Freedom Group came up for sale, and also when it was taken over by what will be an independent group of investors whose goal is to take it private.

My 45 year work background was fixing bankrupt companies or financially challenged divisions within companies.

The management group knew that they were going to lose money even if an administration was put in place that was not going to go out of their way to support the 2nd Amendment. It was and still is the reason Remington is transitioning to Huntsville Alabama.

I know for a fact that Huntsville made a significant profit in the first 3 quarters of 2017 but not enough to cover the drain that has been present for almost 15 years of other locations.

While there has not been any announcement about Ilion or the other factory locations IMO it is a part of the strategic planning to shut em down. If I was the CEO of Remington Outdoor Group I would!

Cerberus is not noted for any type of advance notice and in fact had issued a statement which they called "Christmas comes early" in November of 2013 assuring employees that there were no plans to consolidate or close down any locations.

On 3/14/2014, basically 4 months later it was announced that new production and distribution facilities were being created in Huntsville Alabama.

If anybody reading this thinks that a deal that complex was set up and completed in 4 months they I have a used car I will sell you...assuming I can get it running.

I was at the press conference.

If you look at the square footage that they have been given lease free, along with close to $250M in support money....given not loaned....provided by the State, the County and the City where the new complex is.....it does not take a mental giant to question what the strategic planning is gonna be.

Remington Outdoor Group still has almost $200M of that money that they have not used and THAT will not show up on any financials.

Again I am not saying it is not disturbing but I am saying the release is incomplete....of course that is my opinion only but the folks that publish those types of releases only look at numbers, which can be verified, then based on trends and probability statistics form the conclusion they publish.

That they don't look at, at least relative to posting, is all the stuff behind the situation. They can't cause they are fund managers and have to stick to numbers etc. not stuff that cannot be quantified in numbers.

First off creditors don't want to "call" the loans for at least two reasons. The first is that accounts receivables are considered income so if you wipe those out you wipe out profits. Second, if you take say 35 cents on the dollar which is quoted in the release you hurt your profits and your own stock.

Third, folks that lend money, and I can speak to this from direct experience, do so based on the management team that is in place. If they consist of successful business folks it is not really hard to get monies or for that matter to restructure loans.

Have to grovel some.

Fourth, the thrust for the group who actually is managing the Remington Outdoor Group is to take the Group private once they have all the changes they are going to make are done and they are in the black so to speak. Their are strong indications that Steve Feinberg who is the de facto owner of Cerberus who is a strong supporter of the 2nd amendment, is involved in some way relative to the loans and available credit.

He tried to buy the Freedom Group and take it private and even requested permission for a "Stalking Horse" which is a confidential "due diligence" evaluation but was rejected by the Fed's for conflict of interest.

I am not a Remington employee! I don't own any of their stock! I have the same interest in their success as anybody else on RFC!

I would also remind folks that Smith and Wesson darn near died between 1982-1986 and they are still around.

No senior manager worth their salt is going to play their hole card relative to press releases.

I was hired as a CEO 3X for bankrupt companies during my career and I never did.

Am I saying they will survive? No. Am I saying that there is a lot more positive stuff behind the article? Yes!

noremf(George)

Last edited by noremf; 11-25-2017 at 07:31 PM.
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Old 11-24-2017, 05:47 PM
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I hope you are right.......noremf(George) ......unfortunately If Remington insists on calling the garbage that they put out (firearms) their will be only one outcome..........Remington Marlin Ruger.....and even Smith & Wesson, have gone downhill very quickly in the last few years....I find this all very very sad.....companies like CZ TIKKA SAKO HOWA and yes even NORJUNKO are more than HAPPY to sell to the North Americans..........please tell me why I should give
Cerberus ( that DOG from H#ll) one more red cent.....please don't misunderstand me.....I would like nothing more ....then a chance to buy a well made 700 Varmint special in 204......BUT THEY DONT MAKE THEM ANYMORE.....J.M.H.O.................MRXT
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Old 11-24-2017, 06:34 PM
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I was a junk bond trader and portfolio manager for 40 years. When you get downgraded to CCC- you are literally one step away from a default on your debt. The chances of a liqudation or reorganization are darn near 100%. It doesn't mean you won't survive as an entity but probably at half or less than your prior size and market share. You can bet that whatever happens, Remington will not be what it was in the past and may end up owned by a foreign entity that will sell their own products under the Remington trademark but will bear no resemblance to what once was. You may end up seeing Remington firearms made in Japan just like Browning and Winchester.
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Old 11-24-2017, 08:44 PM
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A Japanese Remington.......I wish.....A Chinese Remington....is more likely....made with Chinese steel.....with very English names.........try defending a nation...when you have to wait for a boat load of parts.......none of this makes me very happy................MRXT
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